I found this article a while back and started watching daily the earthquakes. From the headlines alone you can see that we are really close to seeing a 6.0 or greater earthquake EVERY day! It has clearly increased if you are watching it.
Every month, spreadsheet job/reader/contributor Tony Ring generously sends us the monthly crunch of long-term earthquake data. What he does is log into the USGS database and then slices and dices by month, subtotals and figures. Even he was amazed at what’s coming out:
WOW! I’ve been running these graphs for at least a year, no? Every month they change a little. This month every one of them changed dramatically. Take a look…
Not only did I look but since we have monthly data going back to 1973, an extension out 26-months which would get us to May 2013 (our high risk area for big CME’s off the sun, since those usually peak on the backside of a solar cycle) makes human future look pretty shaky if trends continue…
Not clear enough? Well, until 2006, the world was bumping along with a 7.0 quake in the range of 3½ to 4½ times per month. If the 5th order polynomial extension is anywhere near right, it suggests that by December of 2012 that we’ll be in the 7 major quakes per month range and heading for 9 major quakes per month.
Around 30-months out, the world would be having a 6.0 or larger on a daily basis, too…
Fifth order polynomials are just monkey mind pushing things way out there. BUT if you remember your historical writings, there’s a rich history of earthquake impacts in ancient India, for example, and the story of The Flood as reported in various religious writings might well be a rough analogy to a continental subsidence event which would be otherwise hard to describe within then prevailing thought parameters.
Just for the heck of it, we then push out one more chart to ponder: How long before all this shaking comes right up to the surface? Answer: Looks like 48-months out.
Let’s see: Worst case, the data could be pushed to where surface quakes – which would be indescribably damaging would be popping off 38 times per month globally. Of course, civilization would pretty much be in ruin long before then, since such a rise in frequency would presumably be accompanied by a huge increase in Japan-sized super quakes and that would leave a seriously leveled world with leaking nuke plants all over the place.
Still, like I said, the 5th order polynomial doesn’t make the future, it’s only one possibility among many mathematical models. The best case would be a regression to the mean and evidence emerging that the recent significant change in the data is only the result of the moon making its recent close passage to Earth. With Super Moon gone, maybe we’ll get back to normal.
Still, a 9+ this month or next would not look good for the data set, because it could be a sign the data is not going to neatly regress as any rational person would wish it to.
Click on the article title for a link to full original referenced article.